Climate change risks
The severity of climate change impacts is influenced by various factors, such as the future development of greenhouse gas emissions and the city's ability to enhance its adaptive capacity. For each risk, identified city-level vulnerability and exposure factors are listed.
Heat, drought, and temperature fluctuations
With climate change, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense. As summers get warmer, the need for cooling in buildings increases.
Impacts
- Health issues and discomfort caused by heat
- Effects on drinking water availability and water supply, especially in sparsely populated areas
- Decreased work productivity
- Increased need for cooling in buildings
- Growing demand for home care services for the elderly (cooling options in homes vary)
- Impacts on nature
- Effects on the condition of the Baltic Sea
Vulnerability and exposure factors
- An aging population (older people are more vulnerable to the adverse effects of heat)
- Number of indoor spaces without air conditioning
- Urban heat island effect (urban areas are hotter than surrounding regions)
During the winter season, when temperatures fluctuate around zero, the cyclical freeze-thaw-freeze phenomenon increases slipperiness and affects the maintenance of urban infrastructure. Such conditions are initially expected to become more common as the climate warms but to decrease later as winters shorten.
Impacts
- Increased need for slipperiness prevention, followed by a later decrease
- Environmental impacts of slipperiness prevention measures
- Increased street dust
- Risks of slipping accidents
- Deterioration of structures and the road network, leading to increased maintenance needs (wells, road network, stormwater system)
Vulnerability and exposure factors
- The extent of the maintained street and property network
- Dependence on well water
With climate change, dry periods may increase in frequency and duration. Prolonged droughts can reduce groundwater levels during the summer. Especially in summer, drought can lead to water shortages, causing problems particularly for small water supplies and rural areas, and may affect water supply, waterborne transport, energy production, and industry.
Impacts
- Increased need for irrigation
- Crop losses in agricultural production
- Increased risk of wildfires and forest fires, along with smoke-related hazards and property damage
- Challenges related to the sufficiency and quality of drinking and irrigation water
- Impacts on nature
- Harmful effects of street dust
Vulnerability and exposure factors
- Drought tolerance of plant species (e.g., rocky medows typical to Turku’s natural environment)
Storms, Floods, and Heavy Rainfall
Heavy rainfall is intensifying throughout the year, increasing the risks of stormwater flooding as well as the annual precipitation in Southwest Finland. Although the number and intensity of storms remain unchanged, their impacts are amplified due to the reduction of frost.
The intensity of heavy rainfall is increasing throughout all seasons. Annual precipitation in the Southwest Finland region is projected to increase by 6–10 percent by 2100. The number of rainy days is expected to rise especially during the winter season.
Impacts
- Flood risks and damages (e.g., water damage to buildings, damage to urban infrastructure)
- River erosion and bank collapses
- Nutrient loading and eutrophication of the Archipelago Sea and water bodies
- Pollution spikes from harmful substances
- Increased need for dredging
Vulnerability and exposure factors
- Densifying urban structure
- Extensive impermeable surfaces in built-up areas
- Clayey soil that slows water infiltration
- Capacity of the stormwater system
There are not expected to be major changes in the frequency or intensity of storms based on current knowledge, but their impacts will increase due to the reduction of frost. Average wind speeds will remain roughly the same, with increases in wind speeds during winter and spring. Risks arise from coastal floods caused by winter storms and stormwater floods caused by thunderstorms.
Impacts
- Damage caused by storms to buildings, urban infrastructure, property, and people
- Power outages, affecting heating, water supply, telecommunications, and other societal functions
- Disruptions to traffic and transportation infrastructure
- Environmental impacts (forest damage)
Vulnerability and exposure factors
- The extent of underground cabling and self-sufficiency of the electrical grid
- Individual lack of preparedness and limited ability to respond
- Absence of backup power generators
As heavy rainfall intensifies, especially stormwater flooding risks increase. Coastal flooding risk, particularly caused by winter storms, is significant in the Turku coastal area. The probability of high sea levels is not expected to increase significantly in the Archipelago Sea by 2050, but it is projected to rise towards the end of the century.
Impacts
- Flood damage to buildings, infrastructure, property, and people
- Impacts on transportation, energy, waste management, water supply networks, and telecommunications
- Ecosystem impacts
- Effects on agriculture
Vulnerability and exposure factors
- Turku’s geographical location on the coast
- Zoning and construction in identified flood risk areas
(In the master plan, areas designated for industrial and central functions in the southwest (including Linnanniemi) and residential areas in Pihlajaniemi are located in coastal flood hazard zones) - Extensive impermeable surfaces in built-up areas
- Insufficient sizing of flood management measures
Biodiversity loss and biological risks
Climate change is expected to increase the risk of forest fires, which release large amounts of carbon into the atmosphere and degrade air quality. Disease risks, such as those spread by ticks, are becoming more common as temperatures rise and the growing season lengthens. Extreme weather events affect ecosystems and alter species composition.
The risk of forest fires is expected to increase in the future due to climate change. Large-scale forest fires release significant amounts of carbon stored in vegetation into the atmosphere, accelerating climate change. Forest fires locally degrade air quality and emit black carbon (soot), which contributes to warming the climate.
Impacts
- Forest damage caused by fires
- Impacts on nature
- Damage to buildings, property, and people
- Potentially significant costs related to firefighting efforts
- Smoke hazards and temporary deterioration of air quality (causing discomfort especially for those with respiratory illnesses)
Vulnerability and Exposure Factors
- Non-compliance with fire bans issued in forest fire warnings
- Adequacy of emergency response capacity
Changes in temperature and precipitation, along with the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, bring a variety of ecosystem impacts and changes in species composition.
Impacts
- Changes in species composition and loss of biodiversity
- Spread of harmful invasive species
- Increased damage from plant diseases and harmful insects (e.g., Dutch elm disease)
- Impacts on agriculture and forestry
Vulnerability and Exposure Factors
- Fragmentation of green areas
- Insufficient ecological corridors
- Densifying urban structure
- Sensitivity of archipelago and coastal nature and their unique habitats
Many disease risks are linked to weather and human activity. For example, diseases spread by ticks are becoming more common as the climate warms and the growing season lengthens.
Impacts
- Increased risks of waterborne diseases with more frequent heavy rains (affecting drinking water) and heatwaves (affecting swimming water)
- Spread of new plant diseases and harmful insects
- Increased prevalence of diseases transmitted by ticks
Vulnerability and exposure factors
- Number of people belonging to risk groups
- Adequacy of healthcare capacity
Ripple Effects
Ripple effects are complex chains of weather and climate variations that can begin anywhere in the world but eventually impact Finland. These phenomena may pose challenges to society, such as difficulties in securing sufficient economic resources and maintaining societal stability.
Ripple effects refer to chains of interactions between weather and climate variability and climate change that begin outside Finland’s borders but eventually extend to Finland. The impacts can be diverse.
Impacts
- Challenges in the availability of raw materials or imported energy
- Weakening of supply security
- Uncontrolled immigration (climate refugees) and segregation
- Health effects
- Impacts on tourism
- Factors affecting air quality (airborne pollutant transport)
Vulnerability and Exposure Factors
- Sufficiency of society’s economic resources
- Level of societal stability